Fixed Rates Dropping

Tracy Head • December 19, 2022

Most years we see fixed rates start to drop towards the end of the calendar year as lenders try to boost their business to end the year strong. This year has been no exception.


Over the last few weeks I’ve seen fixed rates drop from close to six per cent about six weeks ago to 4.79 per cent and better as of this week. These rates vary depending on whether your mortgage is insured or not, but in relative terms we have seen close to a one per cent drop in many cases.


What does this mean in practical terms?


For one client I’m working with who is a single mom who is searching for a home to call her own, this increase in affordability has increased her purchase price by almost $20,000 which in her community puts her into a house rather than a condo.


For people who have upcoming renewals it may be time to connect and explore your options. If you are coming out of a fixed rate mortgage in the two per cent range, it is likely that you will be looking at a three month interest penalty to switch out of your current mortgage if you choose to do so before your actual renewal date.


I don’t advocate jumping ship really early in every case. Paying a prepayment penalty AND a higher interest rate isn’t always a great plan, but each situation is unique.


The next year is looking to be a bit bumpy with interest rates still, and from what I’m hearing rates will start trending down again towards the end of next year.


However, if you have a renewal coming up in the next four months I encourage you to reach out to explore your options now. With no historical research to support this, what I have seen for many years is interest rates pop up again as the new year starts.


I sat in on a call yesterday with the president of one of my favorite lenders. He had some interesting thoughts on the variable versus fixed conversation. Their firm has been watching delinquency rates carefully, and I was quite surprised to learn that the numbers of variable rate clients in arrears was actually far lower than the number of fixed rate clients in arrears.


I’m not sure whether that has to do with the proportionate split as to how many clients choose fixed over variable, or if there is something else that really affects these stats. I do know I am concerned for some of my variable rate clients as I know I am feeling the pinch with my own monthly mortgage payment increasing substantially.


I was also surprised to hear that most of the lender’s variable clients were choosing to stay the course

rather than lock into fixed rate terms.


If you are exploring whether locking in at this point makes sense for you, I encourage you to do your homework. Reach out to your mortgage person to run the numbers and see if this makes sense for you. With fixed rates now less than variable it may make sense, particularly if you are losing sleep at night.


However, if you are planning to make any changes over the next few years and are variable it most likely makes sense to stay the course.


Grateful to all who have reached out after reading my column to share their thoughts and feedback. Wishing you and yours a wonderful holiday season filled with love and laughter!!

Tracy Head

Mortgage Broker

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By Tracy Head December 23, 2025
After more than two decades as a mortgage broker in Canada, I can tell you this: the questions I’m getting today are different from the ones I heard five or even three years ago. They’re more urgent. More personal. And often, more anxious. It’s not that Canadians suddenly forgot how mortgages work. It’s that we’re in a period of change — and change creates uncertainty. With so many mortgages coming up for renewal over the next couple of years, interest rates still higher than what people grew used to, and household budgets already stretched, clients want clarity. They want to understand how their financial lives might look one, two, or three years from now — and what they can do now to avoid being caught off guard. Here are some of the most common questions I’m asked right now: “How bad is my renewal going to be?” This is, without question, the number one concern. Many homeowners took out five-year fixed mortgages between 2019 and 2021, when rates were historically low. At the time, locking in under 2% felt smart — and it was. The challenge is that those mortgages are now coming due in a very different rate environment. Clients want to know: How much will my payment increase? Can I absorb that increase without changing my lifestyle? Is there anything I can do to soften the blow? The honest answer is that some people will see a noticeable jump in payments, especially if they haven’t reduced their balance much. For others, the increase is manageable — but only with planning. That’s why I encourage clients to look at their renewal at least a year in advance. The earlier we run the numbers, the more options we have. “Should I go fixed or variable this time?” This question never really goes away, but it’s taken on new meaning lately. People aren’t just asking about rates — they’re asking about peace of mind. After the rollercoaster of the past few years, many borrowers are prioritizing predictability over squeezing out the absolute lowest possible rate. Some are still open to variable rates, especially if they believe rates may continue to ease over time. Others want the certainty of a fixed payment so they can plan their budgets with confidence. There’s no universal right answer — the best choice depends on your income stability, risk tolerance, and how tight your monthly cash flow already is. What I remind people is this: choosing a mortgage isn’t about guessing the future perfectly. It’s about choosing an option you can live with even if things don’t go exactly as expected. “Can I still afford my home long-term?” This is where the conversation gets more personal. Rising mortgage payments don’t happen in a vacuum. Clients are also dealing with higher grocery bills, insurance costs, childcare expenses, and everything else that seems to cost more than it used to. So naturally, they’re asking whether their home still fits comfortably within their overall financial picture. For some, the answer is yes — with a few adjustments. For others, it means deeper discussions about amortization changes, refinancing strategies, or even downsizing down the road. None of these are failure scenarios. They’re planning conversations. One thing I stress is that affordability isn’t just about what a lender will approve. It’s about what allows you to sleep at night and still enjoy your life. “Is now a good time to buy — or should I wait?” First-time buyers and move-up buyers are asking this constantly. They’re watching rates. They’re watching home prices. They’re hearing headlines that point in different directions. What they really want is reassurance that they’re not making a mistake. My answer is always the same: the “right time” to buy is when it fits your life, your finances, and your timeline — not when the headlines look perfect. Trying to time the market is incredibly difficult, even for professionals. What buyers can control is how prepared they are, how conservative they are with their budget, and how well they understand their mortgage options. “What happens if things get tight?” This is one of the most important — and often unspoken — questions. Clients want to know what safety nets exist if their financial situation changes. What happens if a renewal payment feels overwhelming? What if income drops? What if life throws a curveball? This is where strategic planning comes in. We talk about: Building flexibility into mortgage terms Choosing products with reasonable prepayment options Keeping amortizations realistic Understanding lender policies before you need them The goal isn’t to assume the worst — it’s to make sure you’re not boxed in if circumstances change. “Do I really need a broker, or can I just renew with my bank?” This question comes up a lot, especially at renewal time. Banks make renewing easy — sometimes too easy. A quick email. A rate offer. A couple of clicks. What’s often missing is context. Is that rate competitive? Does that product fit your future plans? Are there better options available elsewhere? More clients are realizing that mortgage decisions today have longer-lasting consequences than they did when rates were ultra-low. They want advice, not just a rate quote. They want someone to help them think through the next three years, not just the next three months. Looking Ahead: The Next 1–3 Years What all these questions have in common is uncertainty about the near future. Canadians know their mortgages matter — not just to their housing costs, but to their entire financial lives. With so many renewals approaching and the day to day cost of living still elevated, people want to feel prepared, not surprised. As a broker, my role isn’t to predict the future. It’s to help clients understand their options, model different scenarios, and make choices that align with their real lives — not just spreadsheets. If there’s one thing I’ve learned over the years, it’s this: the best mortgage decisions are made early, thoughtfully, and with good advice. And in today’s environment, that guidance matters more than ever.
By Tracy Head November 29, 2025
The topics I’ve written about over the years are almost always a reflection of a common theme I’ve seen or challenge I’ve dealt with since the last column I wrote. This one is no different.  The last few months, and particularly the last few weeks, have been among the most challenging in my mortgage career. I say challenging but that might also mean stressful. When working with clients and finding the right fit for their mortgage I look at many different factors. Rate is obviously one of the most important considerations. I also try to get a solid understanding of my clients’ short and longer term goals. For instance if the clients are looking to upsize from a home in the city to a rural property with acreage I will look at chartered banks or credit unions instead of a monoline lender. If the clients are purchasing a lease-hold property there are only a few lenders that will provide financing so that narrows the field. If the clients want direct access to manage their mortgage themselves I will place them with one of my favorite lenders that has an amazing client portal. Sometimes despite the client and the broker doing everything possible to ensure a smooth mortgage process things go sideways. Due to incredibly high volumes over the last few months I’ve seen refinance at renewal mortgages delayed by days or weeks. The stress for everyone involved is overwhelming. The most valuable lesson I’ve learned as a mortgage broker came from a wise more-seasoned broker about ten years ago. She said to me “when things are going sideways on a file, don’t get caught up thinking about what’s going wrong – think about what you need to do to fix it.” I have been hearing these words on repeat the last two weeks, and I think this is helping to keep me (and my clients) on track. If things do appear to be going sideways for you, I encourage you to connect with your mortgage person for regular updates.